Marshalls to Alaska Day 16: Watching the Weather

no thank you 5 meter waves

Greetings,

As you can imagine, Max spends a lot of time every day looking at the weather forecasts. In addition to the input/advice from our weather router on an as-requested basis, we get new GRIBs twice per day, and updated surface weather maps at a similar frequency. We spent some time this evening with both of us poring over the forecasts, as there is potentially a low pressure system moving across our rhumb line in a couple of days. The forecast a few days ago suggested that by motoring north in the light winds that we have now we could outrun it, but it looks now like we would be better off to dally a little to the south and east of our track while it passes. With wind, current, wave, gust, and rain data to consider, all on moving time-annotated charts, it can feel a little overwhelming, especially when the various models do not agree. In the end, we made a mark on the chart that should be to the SE of the worst weather, and we will steer for that for now (at least until the forecast changes and we revisit our dot on the ocean!). I am certainly grateful that we have these tools at our disposal.

When our friend was on board in Rongerik, we got talking about the Weather Fax that we have at our chart table. He said that when he did his previous Pacific loop in the early 2000's only a few people had Weather Fax, and everyone would congregate around them to see what the weather was expected to be. The printouts were on thermal fax paper, and had to be carefully timed so that the proper surface chart was printed: various HF stations broadcast a schedule of charts, and the machine had to be turned on at the exact right moment to get the desired printout. If the time slot was missed, it was another few hours before the same information would be available again. It turns out that our Weather Fax, which we keep as a tested-but-hardly-used backup system, was one of the machines he would have been gathered around, since he had buddy-boated with our actual vessel on his previous trip 20 years ago. As I said, I am really grateful that the technology has progressed, and now we can get these charts over email at any time of day or night!

In my office

The current surface analysis - this is the meteorologist's assessment of the current conditions (or actually the conditions from a few hours ago as it takes some time to produce and promulgate).  The blue line is our notional course and the red dot is the position at the time of the blog post.

The 48 Hour Surface Forecast shows what the Ocean Prediction Centre assesses will occur in two days.

Through the magic of Open CPN we can geo-reference the 48 hr plot onto our course and position to better understand the implications.  In this case you can see if we continue down the blue line the gale will catch up to us and catch up to us with the windier quadrant.  Not so desirable.

We also download the satellite images to get a better picture of what is going on.  Not much happening at 39 37"N 174 14E but look to the south east.

Back in January when these cooler temperatures were just a theoretical concept, I realized that I would need more thermal layers, ideally merino wool. I started looking online for possible suppliers, and I came across Woolx.com, whose gear got good reviews in various articles. I noticed that they had an 'Ambassador' programme for adventurous bloggers. When I called and asked if sailing from the Marshall Islands to Alaska with three children in a 47 foot boat was adventurous enough for their programme, it didn't take long to get an answer in the affirmative, and to receive 'his & hers' sets of their warmest merino thermals, designed for people who have to sit still for long periods in cold conditions. Even though Max is still walking around barefoot, I have graduated to my warm Woolx thermals, and they are as soft and cozy (and warm) as I could have imagined. After we are back in Internet range, we will write some articles to tell more of our story, but for now, I am simply grateful to this company who believed in a Canadian family setting off on a month-long adventure across the latitudes. Thanks Woolx!

Fluenta's answer to thermals is a layer of insulation (installed over hours and days in Majuro) and a system of heating hoses which run through our (new) heat exchanger on the engine cooling system. Our winds dropped this afternoon (as predicted) and we began motoring. The engine heat now being pumped through two fan units and the hot water tank has raised the boat's inside temperature from about 18 to 23C over the course of the evening. This is lovely while it lasts, but the chill of the sea will return when we start to sail again, and we will all be back to bundling up both in the cockpit and downstairs. Once the temperature really drops (I keep being reminded that it is not actually that cold yet) we expect to run the heater or the engine twice/day to take the chill off the boat.

Whenever I am not in the cockpit during my night watch, I go upstairs every 15 minutes or so to look around and check for squalls or traffic. Often there isn't much to see, but there is at least a horizon and perhaps some stars. The cloud cover is such tonight that there is literally nothing but blackness. There are no ships within 48 nm (according to our AIS) and it will be a few more days before we have much of a moon. In the meantime, we watch our progress on our instruments, chart plotter, and if necessary, radar. It will be nice when the moon comes back!!

During the calms tomorrow we will prepare for the potentially heavier weather over Sunday-Tuesday, making sure all surfaces have been cleared of the clutter that collects during gentle conditions (picture a saloon table hidden by fleeces, books, craft supplies, and snacks), securing the aft deck, stowing the excess spinnaker lines, and making food (pasta and rice to go with the bread that Victoria baked today). We have decided to stow our spare anchor back in its locker in the V-berth (it is lashed on the aft deck at the moment while our primary is lashed below decks) only to take it out again shortly before our arrival. So much of what we do is about preparing: we will put the anchor back out once we are close to Dutch Harbor in case we need it before we reach the dock. We hope that our efforts are more than what is eventually necessary, but we will do our best to err on the side of caution.

The last time we had heavy weather (coming to Majuro from Tuvalu) our laptop spent a lot of time in the chart table or the oven for protection from water and lightning. We are hoping that all of our rebedding in Majuro has reduced the amount of water that will come into the saloon, but if there is a gap in updates over the next few days, it is likely because our laptop has been stowed for safekeeping or it is not really good typing conditions!

Love to all,
Elizabeth
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At 2019-07-01 11:53 PM (utc) SV Fluenta's position was 39°37.32'N 174°14.28'E

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